Global commodity markets are under pressure in 2025 amid rising trade tensions, US protectionism, and slowing global growth. Energy prices remain subdued, with oil at a 4-year low due to oversupply concerns and weak demand, while a stronger supply outlook for major crops is set to keep downward pressure on food commodity prices. Meanwhile, metals markets remain mixed, as policy-driven volatility curbs price momentum despite prospects for recovery later in the year.
The first 100 days of a US Presidency typically set the tone for the future administration. President Trump’s second term has started with chaos and uncertainty, marked by a global trade war, financial market turmoil, an increased risk of recession, spending and federal government cuts as well as threats of mass deportation. We present a summary of Euromonitor’s analysis published since Trump’s re-election, representing the uncertainty and rapid policy shifts at the time. Despite the turbulence, agile businesses can still find opportunities as global supply chains and consumer behaviour evolve.
Global businesses are facing a highly uncertain environment, as growing geopolitical tensions and trade protectionist policies can accelerate the challenges of supply shortages, a tight labour market and lower productivity. Euromonitor identifies the top five trends in business dynamics that are shaping the global business landscape today and beyond.
Changes in the US trade policy impact a broad range of trade partners and goods and adds more uncertainty to the global economy. US importers have limited trade diversification potential, with higher trade tariffs leading to higher inflationary pressures. Retaliatory tariffs would also hurt US exporters, especially in commodity and automotive industries.
In 2025, global energy, food, and metals markets face mixed outlooks amid geopolitical risks, trade policy shifts, and supply dynamics.
Supply chain diversification is accelerating as new manufacturing and export hubs in Asia emerge. However, these new hubs remain heavily reliant on component imports from China. To fully diversify and reduce risks, significant investments in production capacity, supporting industries and infrastructure will be required to catch up with China and close the supply and exports gap.